The Record
How well do prediction markets forecast the future? We track every article.
0
Confidence Score
0%
Direction Correct
0 of 0
---
Avg Brier Score
Lower is better
---
Latest Grade
No resolved predictions yet. As prediction markets resolve, our track record will appear here.
Every article we publish is tracked against the market outcome.
Methodology
Every article published by The Future Express is tied to a prediction market. When the market resolves, we compute a Brier score comparing our published probability to the actual outcome. A Brier score of 0 is perfect accuracy; 1 is perfectly wrong. The Confidence Score (0-100) is derived from the average Brier score across all resolved predictions. Direction accuracy measures whether we correctly indicated the market's eventual direction at the time of publication.