TEHRAN — Should fate intervene before 2045, prediction markets have already named their man. A Kalshi contract that settles only upon the death of the incumbent places a single candidate at 66% to claim the Supreme Leadership of Iran — a figure commanding $114,000 in daily volume and the attention of anyone tracking the Islamic Republic's future. The gap between this market and ordinary succession forecasts is not mere arithmetic; it is a measure of how much the outside world does not know about Tehran's inner chambers.

The Supreme Leader holds singular authority over Iran's military, judiciary, and foreign policy — a post that has changed hands but once since the Revolution of 1979. Market consensus, as expressed through Kalshi, now leans heavily toward one successor, yet the selection rests with an Assembly of Experts whose deliberations unfold behind closed doors, far from the scrutiny of any exchange.