WASHINGTON — If prediction markets are to be trusted as tea leaves, one Kevin Warsh shall soon occupy the most powerful monetary chair in the Republic. Polymarket, the digital wagering exchange, assigns a thunderous 94% probability to the former Federal Reserve Governor receiving a formal White House nomination before December 31st, 1926 — that is, 2026 — with some $2.4 million in wagers backing the proposition.

The stakes are considerable, dear reader. The Federal Reserve Chair commands the levers of interest rates, money supply, and credit conditions for the world's largest economy. President Trump's current chair, Jerome Powell, sees his term expire in May 2026, and the incumbent President has made no secret of his dissatisfaction with the man. Market consensus places Warsh — a Wall Street veteran and Stanford fellow known for hawkish leanings — as the overwhelming favorite to inherit that weighty portfolio.