From the trading floors of the future come dispatches of uncertain portent: prediction markets now place the probability of Benjamin Netanyahu departing the Israeli premiership before the close of 1926 at precisely 47 cents on the dollar. Nearly a coin-flip, gentlemen — and on a question of no small consequence. Some $10.9 million in wagers changed hands in a single day's trading on Polymarket, suggesting this is no idle speculation but a matter commanding the full attention of the speculating public.

The stakes are considerable. Mr. Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving prime minister, faces the dual pressures of an ongoing military campaign in Gaza and a corruption trial that has dogged his administration for years. Market consensus holds that coalition instability, legal jeopardy, or ceasefire negotiations gone awry could yet dislodge him from the seat he has occupied, on and off, since 1996. The 47% figure represents a dramatic tightening from calmer days, when his continuance seemed the far safer wager.