The trading floors of tomorrow have spoken with rare unanimity: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin shall not clasp hands again before the calendar turns to 1926 — or rather, 2026. Prediction markets on Polymarket have affixed a cold, unambiguous 0% probability to any fresh summit between the two leaders before December 31, 2025, rendering the notion not a longshot but a statistical ghost.

The backdrop is this: the two strongmen did convene on August 15, 2025, at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, huddling over prospective peace terms for the grinding Ukraine conflict. That encounter, however historic, now appears to stand alone. Market consensus — backed by some $6.7 million in daily trading volume, no trifling sum — suggests the diplomatic calendar has quietly closed its doors. Whether stalled negotiations, geopolitical frost, or simply the grinding machinery of Washington and Moscow conspire to prevent a sequel, bettors have concluded the window has shut.