From the trading floors of tomorrow, the verdict arrives cold and unambiguous: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will not shake hands again before the clock strikes midnight on New Year's Eve. Prediction markets, registering a flat 0% probability on $6.7 million in daily volume, have effectively declared the matter closed — not debated, not contested, simply settled. The Anchorage summit of August 15th, convened at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson to parley over Ukraine's shattered frontier, shall remain a singular chapter, if the seasoned money is to be believed.

The stakes are considerable. A second meeting before December 31st would signal momentum in peace negotiations that most diplomatic observers currently regard as frozen solid. Yet market consensus, as recorded on Polymarket, assigns this outcome precisely no probability whatsoever — a figure so stark it functions less as a forecast than as a declaration. With fewer than five months remaining in the resolution window, bettors have apparently concluded that diplomacy moves no faster than glaciers.