Dispatches from the probability markets suggest the matter is very nearly resolved: the world shall have its first trillionaire before the calendar reads 1930—or, in this instance, 2030. Kalshi exchange, that modern oracle of collective wagering, places the likelihood at a remarkable 91 per cent, a figure that speaks less of speculation than of arithmetic certainty. The name most frequently attached to this milestone, one Elon Musk, requires scant introduction.

The stakes, dear reader, are not merely financial. A single fortune eclipsing one trillion dollars would represent wealth surpassing the gross domestic product of nations boasting centuries of industry. Prediction markets have watched Mr. Musk's constellation of enterprises—electric motorcars, rocket concerns, and sundry digital ventures—compound at rates that render the milestone less a question of if than of when. Market consensus, in short, has grown impatient with suspense.