DISPATCH FROM 2030 — Picture a world where the American economy still wears the crown as the new decade dawns. That is precisely what prediction markets are wagering upon, with Kalshi placing the odds of China surpassing the United States in gross domestic product by 2030 at a mere twenty-one cents on the dollar — a figure that has been retreating of late.

The stakes are considerable. For decades, economists and statesmen alike have debated when, not whether, China's vast productive engine would eclipse that of America. The answer, per market consensus, is that 'when' shall not be this decade. With some $20,000 in daily wagers riding on the question, traders cite Beijing's property crisis, demographic headwinds, and slowing export demand as the Dragon's present afflictions. Prediction markets, in short, have revised the timetable — pushing the reckoning well past 1930. That is to say, 2030.