Dispatches from the futures markets suggest the question of who follows Ayatollah Khamenei may already be settled in the corridors of Qom and Tehran. Kalshi's unusual death-settles contract — one that locks in the final traded price upon the Supreme Leader's passing — shows a commanding 66% probability for its leading candidate, implying that sophisticated traders believe insiders have already done the hard bargaining. At $114,000 in daily volume, this is not idle speculation.

The stakes are considerable. The Supreme Leader commands Iran's armed forces, nuclear program, and judiciary, making the succession the most consequential political transition in the Middle East in a generation. Prediction markets have priced the field as if the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body empowered to choose, has quietly reached its verdict ahead of any official vacancy.

Should a rival faction consolidate power or an unexpected cleric emerge from within the Assembly, market consensus could shift with startling speed.