According to prediction markets, the Anchorage handshake of August 15th shall stand as the singular diplomatic encounter between Washington and Moscow for the remainder of 1925 — or rather, 2025. Polymarket, the futures exchange, has delivered its verdict with unusual finality: a flat zero percent chance that Trump and Putin convene a second time before the clock strikes midnight on New Year's Eve. The market has, in effect, declared the back-channel frozen solid.

The stakes are considerable. The August summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson was billed as a potential turning point in the Ukraine conflict, raising hopes that follow-up talks might translate opening gambits into genuine peace architecture. Market consensus, however, assigns those hopes precisely no weight. With over six and three-quarter million dollars in daily trading volume behind this verdict, the collective wallet of the wagering public speaks with uncommon conviction.