From the crystal ball of collective wagers comes a verdict as cold as an Anchorage winter: the world's sharpest speculators assign precisely zero probability to Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin sharing another handshake before December 31st strikes midnight. The ink on the Alaska summit has barely dried, yet the markets have already slammed the door on an encore.

The two leaders met August 15th at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska — a consequential sit-down aimed at threading the needle on Ukraine peace terms. That single meeting, remarkable enough in its own right, now appears to be the full measure of 2025's diplomatic theater, according to Polymarket, where $6.7 million in wagers have concentrated to produce a unanimous 0% verdict. The market consensus holds that the calendar, the politics, and the sheer diplomatic machinery required all conspire against a second summit materializing within the year.