If the wager-masters are to be believed, the handshakes are finished. Prediction markets on Polymarket have assigned a flat 0% probability that Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will convene a second, separate summit before December 31, 2025 — a verdict delivered with the finality of a closing gavel. The trading volume behind this judgment, some $6.75 million in the past twenty-four hours alone, suggests no mere whisper but a roar of collective conviction.

The backdrop demands attention. On August 15, 2025, Trump and Putin met at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska — a dramatic, ice-edged setting for talks centered on Ukraine's grinding war. That singular encounter has apparently exhausted the market's appetite for diplomatic sequels. Whether the diplomacy stalled, succeeded, or simply ran its natural course, market consensus assigns no meaningful chance of an encore before the calendar turns. Zero percent is not a hedge; it is a verdict.