The trading floors have spoken with rare unanimity: Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will not shake hands again before the calendar turns to 1926—or rather, 2026. Polymarket, handling some six and three-quarter million dollars in wagers on the question, has settled at a flat zero percent probability of a second meeting materializing before December 31st. When speculators refuse to wager even a penny on an outcome, the message could scarcely be plainer.

The backdrop demands consideration. The two leaders convened August 15th at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, a meeting that raised considerable hopes for progress on Ukraine's grinding war. Yet market consensus now treats any follow-up summit as a dead letter within the remaining months of this year. Whether the Alaska parley produced no actionable framework, or whether logistical and political obstacles have since multiplied, prediction markets are pricing in diplomatic stasis with absolute conviction.

Only a dramatic breakthrough—a sudden ceasefire proposal, a back-channel overture leaked to the press, or an emergency calling the two men to the same table—could resurrect this market from its present oblivion.