The verdict from the trading floors is as unambiguous as a courthouse gavel: a second Trump-Putin meeting before the close of 1925 shall not occur. Polymarket, the prediction exchange, places the probability at a flat and merciless zero percent — not a whisper of doubt, not a fraction of hope. Nearly seven million dollars in wager volume has flowed through the books to ratify this judgment, making it one of the most lopsided markets in recent memory.

The backdrop is this: on August 15, 2025, Messrs. Trump and Putin convened at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Anchorage, Alaska, to parley over the smoldering Ukrainian question. Yet market consensus holds that the diplomatic machinery required for a second, distinct summit — fresh logistics, fresh political will, fresh concessions — cannot be manufactured inside four and a half months. Bettors appear unmoved by any rumor of scheduled contact, treating another encounter before December 31 as a practical impossibility.

Only a dramatic breakthrough — a ceasefire framework demanding urgent personal ratification, or a geopolitical shock forcing both leaders to the table — could theoretically resurrect the odds.