WASHINGTON — From the trading floors of the futures markets comes a dispatch carrying little suspense: the United States national debt will reach a new historical zenith before the close of the Trump administration in 2029. Kalshi exchange places the probability at a commanding 98%, a figure that, in the parlance of oddsmakers, constitutes near-certainty. The question the markets have quietly set aside is whether this occurs — and taken up instead is how steeply the ledger climbs.

The stakes are considerable. The national debt presently exceeds $34 trillion, a sum that commands roughly $1 trillion annually in interest payments alone — more than the defense budget. Market consensus, registering $42,906 in 24-hour trading volume on this single question, reflects the near-universal expectation that proposed tax cuts, defense outlays, and structural entitlement spending will push that ceiling skyward. The American taxpayer, as ever, holds the tab.