WASHINGTON — If the prediction markets have read the ledger correctly, the federal budget will remain stubbornly in the red throughout President Trump's current term. Kalshi exchange, where some $38,000 has changed hands on the question, places the probability of a balanced budget at a mere 10 percent — long odds by any accountant's measure. The republic has not seen a balanced federal budget since the fleeting surpluses of the Clinton years, and the Congressional Budget Office projects deficits stretching well into the horizon. Market consensus holds that between military outlays, entitlement obligations, and the revenue realities of recent tax legislation, the arithmetic simply does not favor the optimists. Should dramatic spending cuts materialize or an unexpected economic boom flood Treasury coffers with receipts, traders would no doubt revise their calculus swiftly.