According to Kalshi's prediction markets, the next Supreme Leader of Iran is no mystery to those wagering real money on history. A commanding 66% probability has consolidated around a single front-runner in a market that settles at last traded price upon the incumbent's death — a mechanism that sharpens incentives considerably. The smart money, it appears, has already chosen Tehran's next helmsman.

The stakes could scarcely be higher. Iran's Supreme Leader commands the armed forces, controls the judiciary, and holds final authority over the nuclear programme — a post that shapes not merely Persian affairs but the calculus of half the world's powder-kegs. The market consensus, trading some $114,000 in volume across the past day alone, suggests speculators believe the succession is less murky than Western chancelleries care to admit.

Yet the Assembly of Experts is no rubber stamp, and palace politics in Tehran have upended certainties before. A health crisis, a factional rupture, or a dark-horse cleric could scatter the field entirely before January 2045.