TEHRAN — If the prediction markets are to be believed, Iran's next Supreme Leader is, as yet, nobody in particular. Kalshi places the leading contender at a mere 15%, a figure that speaks less to any man's ascendancy than to the profound inscrutability of the Islamic Republic's succession machinery.

The stakes could scarcely be higher. The Supreme Leader commands Iran's armed forces, its nuclear programme, and the theological legitimacy of the entire revolutionary state. Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the incumbent, draws whispers of dynastic ambition; Ebrahim Raisi met his end in a 2024 helicopter crash before his moment could arrive; and figures such as Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei lurk within the Assembly of Experts, that grey conclave of clerics which holds the formal appointment power. Market consensus assigns no single figure decisive probability, reflecting how selections are made behind closed doors, by men whose deliberations leave no public trail.

A sudden health crisis, a reformist surge within the Assembly, or a military-backed dark horse could redraw the ledger overnight.