From the trading floors of Polymarket comes a dispatch as unambiguous as a closed diplomatic pouch: the probability of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin convening a second summit before December 31st, 1925 — pardon, 2025 — stands at a flat and unforgiving zero percent. The market, it appears, considers the Anchorage handshake a one-act play, not the opening of a longer run.

The stakes are considerable. Trump and Putin broke bread — and considerable geopolitical ice — at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska on August 15th, 2025, in discussions centered upon Ukraine's grinding war. Whether that meeting sprouts a sequel within the calendar year is the question now resolved, in prediction markets' cold estimation, with mathematical finality. Nearly $6.75 million in trading volume confirms this is no casual wager; traders have argued the matter strenuously before arriving at unanimity.

Only a dramatic and sudden diplomatic overture — a ceasefire breakthrough, perhaps, or an urgent crisis demanding face-to-face counsel — could shake that needle from zero.