DISPATCHES FROM TOMORROW — The wagers are in, and they brook no argument: according to Polymarket, the probability that President Donald Trump and Premier Vladimir Putin will convene a second summit before the year's end stands at a resounding zero percent. The market consensus, backed by nearly seven million dollars in daily trading volume, speaks with the conviction of a slammed door. There will be no encore to Anchorage.

On August 15, 2025, the two leaders met at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson in Alaska, their discussions centered upon the grinding war in Ukraine — a meeting that itself stunned the diplomatic world. Yet prediction markets, ever the cold accountants of probability, now judge that a second, distinct meeting before December 31st is a dead letter. Whether through diplomatic stalemate, hardened positions, or the sheer inertia of geopolitics, the odds-makers see no road back to the table within this calendar year.

Only a dramatic breakthrough — a sudden ceasefire demand, a backchannel crisis, or a presidential impulse — could rattle these numbers back to life.