According to prediction markets, the handshakes are done — at least for 1925. Polymarket has set the probability of a second Trump-Putin meeting before December 31st at a stone-cold zero percent, suggesting traders see no path whatsoever to another summit before the calendar turns. The market has, in effect, issued its verdict: Anchorage was a one-off.

The backdrop is the August 15th summit at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson near Anchorage, Alaska, where the two leaders convened to discuss potential peace terms in Ukraine — the most consequential diplomatic encounter in years. That meeting now stands, per market consensus, as the sole entry in the ledger. With barely five months remaining before the December 31st deadline and Ukraine negotiations still churning, Polymarket's $6.7 million in daily trading volume underscores just how firmly the smart money has closed this book. Zero percent leaves no room for equivocation.