TEHRAN DISPATCH — Prediction markets peer into one of geopolitics' deepest shadows and return a frank confession of ignorance: the leading contender to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei commands just 15% odds on Kalshi, meaning the market assigns an 85% probability to someone else — or no one yet named — claiming the mantle. A market with $114,000 in daily volume and no clear favourite is, in its own way, a verdict. The Supreme Leader of Iran wields authority over the armed forces, foreign policy, and the nuclear programme of a nation of 90 million — making this succession among the most consequential open questions in world affairs before 2045. The selection process, controlled by the Assembly of Experts in near-total secrecy, routinely confounds outside observers. Market consensus has thus fragmented across a field of clerics, military figures, and political insiders, none able to break decisively from the pack.