TEHRAN WATCH — The prediction markets have spoken with uncommon clarity: Kalshi's special-settlement contract on Iran's Supreme Leadership — one that resolves at the last traded price upon the incumbent's death — now carries a 66% probability, backed by nearly $114,000 in daily volume. That figure is not a whisper. It is a shout. Market consensus holds that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 85 years old and long the subject of health speculation, will not see 2045 from his current seat of power. The question bettors are truly answering is not if a transition comes, but when — and who inherits the mantle of the Islamic Republic's most consequential office. The Supreme Leader commands Iran's armed forces, nuclear policy, and judiciary, making succession one of the most consequential political events of the coming decades. No clear successor commands broad clerical consensus, and the Assembly of Experts, charged with choosing the next leader, remains riven by factional rivalries.